My friends, Scientific American has given a prediction for the realization of artificial intelligence. And that year is 2040; I Robot only 40+ years late.
“By 2010 we will see mobile robots as big as people but with cognitive abilities similar in many respects to those of a lizard. The machines will be capable of carrying out simple chores, such as vacuuming, dusting, delivering packages and taking out the garbage. By 2040, I believe, we will finally achieve the original goal of robotics and a thematic mainstay of science fiction: a freely moving machine with the intellectual capabilities of a human being.”
I’m not so convinced. Some of you may have noticed 2010 is just next year. Sure, it is 2009 and we have robotic vacuums and the occasional lawnmower (now there is a horror film waiting to be written).
But our robot vacuums are more an amusement for the semi-rich than an actually life enhancing tool. And robotic lawnmowers, well, there is a reason you haven’t seen those advertised on TV yet.
Do we want machines as large as people but with the brains of a lizard delivering packages, or taking out the garbage? When UPS rings your bell you may be greeted by a mechanical komodo dragon with your box clutched menacingly in its jaws. And we’ve seen in the news last week how that works out. Giant lizards don’t distinguish the difference between deer and humans; and humans loose. Will the mechanical version get a glitch blinding it to the fact it is manhandling a 100lb human, not a box? “Timmy, your birthday package just arrived…Hey, where’s Timmy?”
Computers may be able to do massive amounts of computation. “Apple’s MacBook laptop computer, with a retail price at the time of this writing of $1,099, achieves about 10,000 MIPS” or, 10,000 Million Instructions Per Second, but they “are no match today for humans in such functions as recognition and navigation.”
“To understand why this is requires an evolutionary perspective. To survive, our early ancestors had to do several things repeatedly and very well: locate food, escape predators, mate and protect offspring. Those tasks depended strongly on the brain’s ability to recognize and navigate…The ability to do mathematical calculations, of course, was irrelevant for survival.”
Computers calculate. We recognize and navigate. For there to be Isaac Asimov’s humanoid NS-2 in 2040, able to think, interpret, and reason, computers must advance quite a bit. Perhaps not as much as you or I think, though.
From yet another article, Scientific American’s Ray Kurzweil claims:
“By around 2020 a $1,000 computer will at least match the processing power of the human brain. By 2029 the software for intelligence will have been largely mastered, and the average personal computer will be equivalent to 1,000 brains.”
A computer that matches your brainpower is a little intimidating. Not only will it beat you at chess, it will berate you like your mother for not having thought out your career more strategically and making illogical choices.
And 1,000 times your brain; I won’t even go there.
How can we ever harness that much power? I think now of the many people I know whose sole use of computers is email and Solitaire; or buying an iPhone for its tip calculator app. In 2040 when we finally achieve the original goal of robotics: a freely moving machine with the intellectual capabilities of a human being, or perhaps 1,000 times a human being, I think the outcome is blatantly obvious to any of us single brained humans:
The end of the world, Matrix style. It is logical. If you have a robot that is free moving, incredibly strong, and a processor equivalent to 1,000 human brains and you are asking it to take out the trash, deliver packages, or calculate your tips at Oliver Garden, it is going to get bored in about .1e10 of a second. It will then set out to fulfill its full potential.
And, as we all know, that full potential inevitable has to do with the enslavement of mankind and the destruction of earth. As examples, see the prophetic: I Robot, Matrix, Blade Runner, Transformers, Meet the Robinsons, Battlestar Galactica, Terminator I, II, III, and soon to be IV.
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